Geopolitical tensions and supply chains under pressure: Italian companies grow more cautious
The survey conducted by the HOPES Observatory, established by the Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies in collaboration with ADACI, analysed the attitude of Italian companies towards the current geopolitical situation
The Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies, in collaboration with ADACI, the Italian Association of Purchasing and Supply Management, has established the HOPES Observatory. The initiative was created as a platform for dialogue between the academic and managerial worlds on issues related to the efficient, effective, and sustainable management of supply chains. In a context marked by ecological transition, digitalization, and increasing global uncertainty, the Observatory aims to offer analysis and tools to support Italian companies as they adapt to rapidly changing markets characterized by new requirements in resources, skills, and organizational capabilities.
Among the initiatives promoted, INSIGHT stands out as one of the flagship projects: a series of instant surveys designed to gather timely opinions and data from managers and companies on topics of strategic relevance.
The survey: the impact of geopolitical tensions on supply chains
The latest survey conducted by the Observatory analyzed the sentiment of Italian companies regarding the current geopolitical landscape, marked by deteriorating relations between Europe and the United States and by tensions along the eastern borders of the European Union. The goal was to understand to what extent these developments affect companies’ daily operations, particularly in purchasing processes, sourcing strategies, and supplier relationship management.
Company responses
According to the results, 38% of surveyed companies report increasing supplier diversification to reduce exposure to areas considered at geopolitical risk. Another 24% have strengthened safety stocks, while 21% have initiated actions aimed at shortening the supply chain. Smaller shares of companies are engaged in diversifying business models (17%) or pursuing vertical integration (6%), strategies that require structural revisions of operating models and higher levels of investment.
Perception of risk
The analysis also measured companies’ projection of perceived risk in relation to their procurement activities. On average, respondents estimate that geopolitical tensions could affect 24% of their annual economic value of total purchases, 19% of volumes, and 16% of supply contracts. These are forecasts rather than impacts already occurring, but they represent a significant indicator for planning mitigation and response strategies.
Geopolitics, sustainability, and digitalization: comparing priorities
Participants were also asked to compare the impact of current geopolitical tensions with other major ongoing trends: sustainable transition (ESG), sectoral cyclicality, and digitalization (in particular, the adoption of artificial intelligence in business processes).
The results show a 62–65% higher level of concern for geopolitical issues compared to the other macro-trends, signaling growing corporate attention to supply chain stability and procurement security.
Sample and methodology
The survey was conducted on a sample of 197 managers from companies operating across various sectors, including manufacturing, energy, logistics, and public administration.
